山梨医科大学紀要 第10巻，069-078(1993)
卒業試験の成績及び入試の成績等と
医師国家試験の合否の関係
―主成分分析―
平野光昭
本学は、他大学の医学部と比べ、６年間で卒業する者の比率が極めて高い上に、国試（医師国家試験）の合格率も高い。これは、教員が教育に熱心で、学生もこれに応えてよく勉学に励んだからであろう。単に１人でも多く国試に合格させることだけが大学の教育目標でないことは言うまでもないが、これも教育目標のうちの主要な１つには違いない。
これまでに、同一年度の入学者を１グループとして、グループ間でいくつかの因子を比較することによって、国試の合格率を高める要因を追究し、数編にわたる報告をしてきた。
本論文では、個人として見た場合の卒業試験の各科目の成績が、国試の合否とどのようにかかわっているかを調べるため、合格者と不合格者の２グループ間で、平均順位及び平均点の違いの有無を検定し、さらに20科目の成績の主成分を求め、分析した。その結果、第１主成分が国試の合否を予測する資料として、総合卒試や全科目の平均に比べ、優るとも劣らないものであることが分かった。また、入試等の入学時の資料についても、同様の分析を試みたが、「選抜効果」の影響の強さを改めて知る結果となった。
キーワード：医師国家試験、卒業試験、入学試験、相関、主成分分析
Correlation between the Scores in the Final Examinations for Graduation,
the Data in the Time of Matriculation and the Success or Failure
in National Examination for Medical Licence
- By the Analysis of Principal Components -
Teruaki HIRANO
Our university, in comparison with other medical institutions, is proud of a very high ratio of the students who graduate in due course of six years, and that a high ratio of the successful applicants in the national examination for medical license (hereafter N E). These results may be due to teachers' enthusiastic instruction and students' diligent response as well. Of course it is not the sole objective of medical education to make much more, say even one more, successful applicants in N E. However, it must be certainly one of the main objectives of that education.
So far, the author made several reports, to pursue the main factor of raising the ratio of the successful applicants in N E, assuming the students of the same year as one group and comparing some factors among these groups.
In this essay, in order to ascertain the correlation between each student's score of each subject in the final examination for graduation and the success or failure in N E, the author examined the existence or nonentity of the differences between the mean orders and the mean scores of the successful group and the failed, and then searched out and analyzed the principal components which comprise the scores of twenty subjects. As a result, the author found the primary principal component to be no less better than the score in the comprehensive graduation test and the mean score in the test of the whole subjects as the data for forecasting the success or failure in N E. The author also tried to make the same kind of analysis on the data in the time of matriculation, but it resulted in recognizing the strong influence of the effect as a result of selection (the effect which causes the phenomenon where a certain correlation is not to be observed, as a result of selecting the applicants who get the similar scores in an examination).
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