山梨医科大学紀要 第12巻，041-049(1995)
総合卒業試験による医師国家試験の合否予測はどこまで可能か
平野光昭
入学する学生の質を高め，教育の質を向上させることは，6年間でストレートに医師となる者の数を増やすとともに，将来に向けて有望な医師を誕生させることになるが，世間では医師国家試験(以下，国試と呼ぶ。)の合格率を大学教育の1つの評価基準としているので，これを高めることにも無関心ではいられない。そこで，国試と密接な関係のある総合卒業試験(以下，総合卒試と呼ぶ。)の問の中から，項目反応の理論を応用して，何種類かの基準で，識別性能の高いものを選び，これらの問だけによる得点で，合否の予測がどこまで可能か追究し，あまり満足すべき結果ではないが，総得点による場合より予測力を高めることが出来た。
キーワード：総合卒業試験，医師国家試験，項目反応，識別性能，合否予測
How far is it possible for any student to predict the Pass-rate of National Examination for Medical License(NE) with the Aid of the Comprehensive Graduation Test(CGT) ?
Teruaki HIRANO
The elevation of the quality of successful applicants and the improverment of the contents of education result in the increase of the number of medical students who are to go straight on to doctors in due course of six years and the birth of promising doctors. However, as the pass-rate of NE is often considered as a landmark of the contents of medical education in the universities and colleges, we cannot disregard the elevation of the Pass-rate of NE. Therefore we, applying the theory of the item response and using several kinds of standard selected from CGT particular questions which seem to serve as the decisive factors to distinguish between the able student and the unable one. Then we tried to find with the aid of the particular scores in these questions how far it is possible for any student to predict the pass-rate of NE. The result was not so satisfactory, but it was possible to improve the power of prediction more effectively than doing it with the aid of the whole Scores in the whole CGT.
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