山梨医科大学紀要　第13巻，049-056(1996)

総合卒業試験による医師国家試験の合否予測はどこまで可能か(その2)

平野光昭

　入学する学生の質を高め，教育の質を向上させることは，6年間でストレートに医師となる者の数を増やすとともに，将来に向けて有望な医師を誕生させることになるが，世間では医師国家試験（以下国試と呼ぶ。)の合格率を大学教育の1つの評価基準としているので，これを高めることにも無関心ではいられない。そこで，国試と密接な関係のある総合卒業試験(以下総合卒試と呼ぶ。)の問の中から，項目反応の理論等を応用して，何種類かの基準で，識別性能の高いものを選び，これらの問だけによる得点で，合否の予測がどこまで可能か，今年は93年度〜95年度に卒業した者のデータを用いて，昨年の方法を改善し，より一層予測力を高めることが出来た。

キーワード：総合卒業試験，医師国家試験，項目反応，識別性能，合否予測



How Far Is It Possible for Any Student to Predict the Pass-rate of National Examination for Medical License(NE) with the Aid of the Comprehensive Graduation Test(CGT) ? (Part 2)

Teruaki HIRANO

　The elevation of the quality of successful applicants and the improvement of the contents of education result in the increase of the number of medical students who are to go straight on to doctors in due course of six years and the birth of promising doctors. However, as the pass-rate of NE is often considered as a landmark of the contents of medical education in the universities and colleges, we cannot disregard the elevation of the Pass-rate of NE. Therefore we, applying the theory of the item response and using several kinds of standard selected from CGT particular questions which seem to serve as the decisive factors to distinguish between the able student and the unable one. Then we have been trying to find with the aid of the particular scores in these questions how far it is possible for any student to predict the pass-rate of NE. In this essay, the author tried to improve upon the method of analysis using the data on the students who graduated between '94 and '96, and it became possible to enhance the power of prediction more effectively than doing it by the method in the previous essay.



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