山梨医科大学紀要　第17巻，091-099(2000)

学内成績と医師国家試験の合否の関係
−特に総合卒業試験による合否予測−

平野光昭

　入学する学生の質を高め，教育の質を向上させることは，６年間でストレートに医師となる者の数を増やすとともに，人間性豊かな将来性のある医師を誕生させることになるが，世間では国試（医師国家試験）の合格率を大学教育の１つの評価基準としているので，これを高めることにも無関心ではいられない。そこで，国試と密接な関係のある総合卒試（総合卒業試験）の問の識別性能を点検するため，かつ国試の合否を予測するためのデータ解析システムを開発し，数年間にわたり改良を加えてきた。本論文では，新たに改良した方法を適用して，1999年卒及び2000年卒の者を対象に行われた総合卒試のデータを解析し，学内成績と国試の合否の関係についても考察する。もし，全国の大学の協力が得られれば，識別性能の高い多数の問をコンピュータに蓄積することによって，すでに米国で行われているような，学生がコンピュータの前に座ってテストを受けることも夢ではなくなる。

キーワード：総合卒業試験，医師国家試験，識別性能，学内成績，合否予測



The Correlation between the Results of the Examinations in Yamanashi Medical University (YMU)
and the Success or Failure in National Examination for Medical License (NE)
−Prediction of the Pass-rate of NE with the Special Aid of the Comprehensive Graduation Test (CGT)−

Teruaki HIRANO

The elevation of the quality of successful applicants and the improvement of the contents of education result in the increase of medical students who are to go straight on to doctors in due course of six years and the birth of promising doctors full of human excellence.However, as the pass-rate of NE is often considered as a landmark of the contents of medical education in the universities and colleges, we cannot disregard the elevation of the pass- rate of NE.
Therefore,we contrived the system of data analysis and endeavored to improve it for the past several years both to examine the discriminatory powers of questions in CGT which has close affinities with NE and, using the particularly discriminatory questions, to predict the pass-rate for any student.
In this essay, the author, applying these newly improved methods, analyzes the data of CGT for the students graduated in 1999 and 2000, and, considers the correlation between the results of the examinations in YMU and the success or failure in NE.
In case we could obtain cooperation from many universities, by storing in computers the great many questions which seem to serve as the decisive factors to distinguish between the able student and the unable one,it might be no longer a dream that any medical student sits down to the computer and takes the test, as already done in U.S.A.



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